Forecasters with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting an 80% likelihood that an El Niño will strengthen and persist into the spring of 2016. Some models are predicting this El Niño to be the strongest since 1997-1998.

The term El Niño means “the Christ Child” in Spanish and was originally coined in the 18th century by fisherman along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru to describe a warm ocean current that periodically appeared in the fall/winter and lasted for several months. During the warming intervals, fish were less likely to bite, so fisherman would spend the winter and early spring repairing their equipment and spending time with their families.

The El Niño phenomenon has been studied extensively, and it wasn’t until the early 1960’s when scientists concluded the warm Pacific current was associated with periods of extreme wetness along the normally very dry Peruvian coast, low atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific, and high atmospheric in the western Pacific. Consequently, when scientists use the term, El Niño (warm episode), they are describing a warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean that occurs every two to seven years and is associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation worldwide. So, what does this mean for Colorado?

When an El Niño develops, several consistent weather anomalies typically occur around the world. In North America, El Niño typically has its greatest impact during the fall and winter (and into the spring during a particularly strong El Niño year). In Colorado, a strengthening El Niño likely means more rain and snow for portions of the southwest and central mountains as well as the Front Range, which especially causes worry for residents of El Paso County who have already seen 25 to 30 inches of moisture since the beginning of January. With increased precipitation comes increased risk of flooding, particularly over the state’s burned areas including the Waldo Canyon and Black Forest burn scars. However, not all moisture is bad as the very rain that can cause flooding can also help vegetation regrowth in the burned areas provided the precipitation falls moderately.

With all the modeling and information available, it is still important to note that no two El Niños are exactly the same and El Niño is one of many factors that can impact the day-to-day variability in weather patterns. Ultimately, this El Niño will exert some influence on temperature and precipitation in the coming months, but the degree of impact remains to be seen. So, sit back and relax, this could be a bumpy winter/spring (or not).